Archive

Good and Bad Matchups

by Clayton Gray

Week 7 Edition



Upcoming Matchups -- Week 8

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Each week, you'll see a listing of the best and worst matchups both rushing and passing. If you can, exploit these matchups. Obviously, nothing is 100% in football, but each weekly matchup has been analyzed using statistics from each team's last four games. This is kind of a 'what have you done for me lately' approach. When 'average' statistics are given, they are from that team's last four games. Let's get to it.

RUSHING
Good matchups
Washington Redskins vs Chicago -- It seems there are a few Stephen Davis owners that are getting a little worried. A couple of subpar games, and it's like the world is coming to an end. You can hear them fret, "Should I deal Davis?", "I wonder if I should pick up Skip Hicks?" Isn't is amazing how attitudes can change in just a few weeks? Well never fear, the Bears are here. Chicago has been a mild surprise this season, but the Bears have shown little consistency in stopping the run. This week in Washington will be no different as Coach Snyder...I mean Coach Turner...and the Redskins reestablish their offensive dominance.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta -- There have been several shocking events thus far in the NFL season. The most amazing has to be how pitiful the Atlanta rush defense has become. To me, it has very little to do with talent and everything to do with determination. Right now, the Falcons are a beaten squad. It is unreal how the entire team was absolutely deflated by the loss of Jamal Anderson. Almost everyone can run on Atlanta. However, some of you don't need to get too excited, because this matchup could be a nightmare for Tim Biakabutuka owners. Right now, Timmy would be unable to go for the Panthers (he's still hobbled by a sore ankle). It appears that he'll be able to go on Sunday, but this is certainly a situation that bears watching. Those of you that are desperate for a RB might want to look at Fred Lane this week. If Biakabutuka can't go, Lane will score big.

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland -- So I'm a week late in predicting Ricky Weirdo's first 100 yard day. This week he goes one better. He'll get his 100 yards, but he'll also find the end-zone at least once (did you see the refs take away his TD last week? Tough call against what seems to be one of the nicest guys in the league). Anyway, Williams owners have a real happy week.

Bad matchups
Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay -- It doesn't take a mental heavyweight to realize that the Bucs defensive front is just a tad better than the Lions offensive line. Coach Ross knows it, and he reportedly has been working very hard preparing his blockers to improve their pass protection. Uh, what about the run blocking Bobby? Your guys haven't exactly been carving through opposing defenses. My guess is that the pass protection will improve, but at the expense of the running game. As you likely know, Rivers is gone for the year so Hill and Irvin will see increased roles. Greg Hill owners especially are chomping at the bit to start their guy. You better wait another week. Running backs don't bust out against Tampa Bay.

Philadelphia Eagles vs NY Giants -- If you are a high school defensive coordinator, you'll be in heaven right here. The Giants are an outstanding defensive unit. Sure, they gave up 100+ to the Saints, but that will probably only cause them to refocus on the Duce. With no real threat coming from Pederson, Staley will find no running room. His stat line could be something like 17 carries for 27 yards. Yikes! Also, remember that even though New Jersey gave up all those yards to the Saints, New Orleans scored no TDs.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City -- Even if the Chargers were at full strength, this would not be a good matchup for the San Diego running game. With Means out for 2-4 weeks after surgery, it's an awful matchup especially at Kansas City. These two teams will be playing for the AFC West lead (with Seattle), and the game is being played at Arrowhead. That means it will be a slobber-knocker supreme. If you have Kenny Bynum (my goodness, if you've got Kenny Bynum, then just how many teams are in your league?), remember this.....just because the Chargers have to start him doesn't mean you do too.

PASSING
Good matchups
St. Louis Rams at Tennessee -- If you're one of the lucky Warner owners, you just have to play the guy every week. By the way, if you are one of the unlucky Trent Green owners (who wasn't quick enough to grab Warner), don't you just hate each and every stinking TD Mr. Arena Football throws? Anyway, Tennessee is playing very well, but their pass defense isn't exactly setting the world on fire. Furthermore, let's look at the list of stellar passing attacks they've faced in the first part of the season. Uh, Cincinnati (Jeff Blake), Cleveland (Ty Detmer), Jacksonville (a struggling Mark Brunell), San Francisco (Jeff Garcia's first start), Baltimore (Stoney Case), and New Orleans (Billy Joe Tobert or Holliver or something). No one on that list could even read much less match Kurt Warner's fantasy stats. The Rams will expose the weak Tennessee secondary.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina -- If there is one thing that Chris Chandler needs it's a healthy Jamal Anderson. Wait, that's not going to happen. Uh, if there are two things that Chris Chandler needs, it's a healthy Jamal Anderson and a weak opposing pass defense. Against the Panthers, he'll certainly get that weak defense. Carolina is giving two TDs to almost every opposing passer. This week, Chandler and Mathis will benefit from the generosity. If you are looking for a starter, Chandler will give you quality numbers against the Panthers.

Washington Redskins vs Chicago -- Just as Stephen Davis owners are getting a little antsy, so goes a few Brad Johnson GMs. Well, you folks are getting the same advice. The Brad Johnson ship will be back on course this week against the Bears. Reasons? Well, the Chicago defense hasn't exactly been stellar this season, and they are fresh off an outstanding effort from week seven (sure, it was against Trent Dilfer, but Chicago did perform well). I ask you this, "Can the Bears have two consecutive quality outings?" The answer is no! Besides, if the Redskins don't win, Assistant Coach Snyder's head will explode and Head Coach (or do I have those reversed?) Turner will need some white out just to give his cheeks some color.

Bad matchups
Philadelphia Eagles vs NY Giants -- Giants defense good. Doug Pederson bad.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans -- Sure, the Browns show up here almost every week, but this week the defense is actually pretty good. The Saints are allowing somewhere around 200 yards passing (and that's against non-expansion teams). Anyway, the New Orleans secondary has quality talent and will easily clamp down on Kevin Johnson and Leslie Shepherd. Besides, you've got to have a better option than Tim Couch.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville -- For some reason, I looked up 'internal problems' in the dictionary and found a team photo of the Bengals. Can you blame those guys? Their best player (Corey Dillon) is usually absent from the playbook in the 2nd half, the defense couldn't stop Slippery Rock, the ownership has given the team no real direction, the coaching is horrendous, etc, etc, etc. Anyway, whether it be Akili Smith, Jeff Blake, or Boomer Esiason (at least we wouldn't have to listen to him blab), the Bengals QB will struggle mightily against the excellent Jacksonville defense. A 200 yard day would be quite an accomplishment.