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Good and Bad Matchups

by Clayton Gray

Week 8 Edition



Upcoming Matchups -- Week 9

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Each week, you'll see a listing of the best and worst matchups both rushing and passing. If you can, exploit these matchups. Obviously, nothing is 100% in football, but each weekly matchup has been analyzed using statistics from each team's last four games. This is kind of a 'what have you done for me lately' approach. When 'average' statistics are given, they are from that team's last four games. Let's get to it.

RUSHING
Good matchups
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland -- Congrats to the Browns. They finally got one last week against the hardluck Saints. Lost in the euphoria were the 231 yards allowed rushing. That makes three of the last four games where Cleveland's opponent has eclisped the 200 yard mark on the ground. That is a rediculous stat. Enter the Ravens. To say the Brian Billick is searching for a QB is like saying Tony Dungy is searching for a QB. Baltimore will be more than content to hand off to Errict Rhett all game long. If you've got him, he should be a certain start this week.

New Jersey Jets vs Arizona -- Speaking of searching for a QB, the Jets are right there with Baltimore and Tampa. Mirer is clearly not getting any better, and Lucas is still ailing (even healthy is he the answer?) Luckily, Curtis Martin is still around. He's had a couple of very good games lately and will continue that string against the beaten Cardinals. For some reason, Arizona's defense just can not stop the run. Last week they even allowed the Patriots to pile up close to 150 yards on the ground. On average, they're allowing 133 ypg. Against a quality back like Martin, that average will increase.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta -- Not much to say here. Fred Taylor is back. The Jaguars will get up early and grind it out. Good news for Taylor owners: Jacksonville probably won't be able to put the game away in the first quarter. So, Taylor will stay in the game longer than a half.

Bad matchups
San Diego Chargers vs Denver -- If the Chargers were playing a WAC school, I wouldn't like that matchup. Kramer and Harbaugh are playing awful right now, and without Means in the backfield, there isn't much hope of that changing. Lately, the Broncos are allowing 77 ypg on the ground while San Diego is only rushing for 65 ypg. That combination doesn't look very good at all. If you snagged Bynum off the FA wire, you might want to put him back.

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore -- Even in their first win last week, Cleveland only rushed for 62 yards. The Ravens have a very underrated run defense. Lately, they're averaging 83 ypg. Consider their last two opponents (Kansas City & Buffalo -- two rushing teams), and that average looks even better. If you're planning on plugging in a Karim Abdul-Jabbar or a Terry Kirby, think again. The Browns will take to the air.

Tennessee Titans at Miami -- The Titans are finally a great football team. However, one weakness they have (even with the great Eddie George) is running the football. Lately, they aren't even averaging 100 ypg on the ground. Is anyone out there disappointed in Eddie George's running this year? Sure, he's having a great fantasy season, but that's mostly because of his receiving. Imagine what a stud you would have if the ground numbers were there too. Anyway, on to the Miami defense. Lately, they're allowing merely 72 ypg with zero TDs rushing. It is next to impossible to run against the Dolphins. Don't expect George to have a good week.

PASSING
Good matchups
St. Louis Rams at Detroit -- If the Rams were playing the AFC All-Pro team, St. Louis would be listed right here. Even in last week's loss, Warner threw for three TDs. He is simply scoring against everyone. Detriot has been playing very good defense lately, but they won't stop the Rams offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco -- Wow, this limb didn't look like it would be this shaky. Kordell Stewart on the Good list? Sure, why not? If you still have him on your roster (and you're looking for a good starter this week), then believe it or not, Stewart will get the job done this week. I realize the Steelers are averaging around 150 ypg passing, but this week is the week for Kordell. He probably won't have much yardage, but you are virtually a lock to receive a pair of TDs from his arm. That's like a minimum when facing the 49ers secondary. Really, it is. San Francisco's last four opponents have passed for 3, 4, 5, and 2 scores. It is now Kordell Stewart's turn. Start him this week (it's probably your last chance of the season).

Buffalo Bills at Washington -- Wait! Aren't the teams reversed? Wouldn't you rather have Johnson starting than Flutie starting? Well, not this week. The only thing as pitiful as the 49ers defense is the Redskins defense. Doug Flutie will be the beneficary this week. By the way, it appears as though Eric Moulds will return from injury this week as well. Watch that situation closely and rejoice when both players turn in spectacular numbers for you.

Bad matchups
San Diego Chargers vs Denver -- There's no way two QBs can play any worse than Kramer and Harbaugh have the past few weeks. I don't know what the deal is, because they are both better than what they have been showing. Anyway, the Broncos are very good against the pass. Lately, they're allowing only 200 ypg (against George, Gannon, Bledsoe, and Favre no less). Against the woeful San Diego offense, Denver will shine.

Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville -- You have to feel for Chris Chandler this week. He still doesn't have a real threat at RB, and he will face the best pass defense in the NFL. Jacksonville is allowing only 170 ypg and a half a TD through the air. That is nothing less than phenomenal. Without a strong running game, Chandler will be forced to the air. The Jaguars will shut him down.

San Francisco 49ers vs Pittsburgh -- Jeff Garcia has thrown exactly one TD in his last three games. That's not a good average. Pittsburgh has allowed exactly one TD in it's last two games. That is a good average. It looks to be a long weekend for Garcia.