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Good and Bad Matchupsby Clayton Gray Week 12 Edition
Upcoming Matchups -- Week 12 Comments? Reach me here.
First off, to everyone in the U.S., I wish you a happy Thanksgiving. To everyone outside the U.S., I wish you a happy day.....unless you are playing one of my teams. In that case, I hope you suffer with a loss. Each week, you'll see a listing of the best and worst matchups both rushing and passing. If you can, exploit these matchups. Obviously, nothing is 100% in football, but each weekly matchup has been analyzed using statistics from each team's last four games. This is kind of a 'what have you done for me lately' approach. When 'average' statistics are given, they are from that team's last four games. Let's get to it.
RUSHING Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati -- Predicting good fortune for Pittsburgh at home in 1999 hasn't been a good bet. However the Bengals rush defense has been extremely soft this year. Lately they are allowing 140 ypg and 2 TDs rushing. That is absolutely horrendous. Expect Bettis to have nice weekend. Philadelphia Eagles at Washington -- A couple of weeks ago, the Eagles rushed for 198 yards and a pair of scores against Washington. Have the Redskins solved their defensive woes in the last 14 days? I seriously doubt it. Expect Staley to have a stellar day. Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia -- In that same game two weeks ago, the Redskins rushed for 130 yards and a pair of scores against Philadelphia. Have the Eagles solved......oh, never mind. You'd be fool to sit Davis anyway. Bad matchups Detroit Lions vs Chicago -- Sure the Lions have a better record without Barry Sanders, but the rushing game is pretty pitiful. Lately they're averaging 69 ypg and 0.5 TDs rushing. Meanwhile the Bears have allowed next to nothing on the ground against Green Bay, Minnesota, and San Diego. If you're looking for a Thanksgiving Day spark from Hill or Irvin, you can forget it. San Diego Chargers at Minnesota -- It's not like the Vikings are very good stopping the run. It's just that the Chargers couldn't run on a high school junior varsity team. Until Natrone Means returns (and actually plays an entire game), every single San Diego player should be avoided. Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee -- Wow! Cleveland is awful on the ground. Here are the rushing totals from their last four games: 62, 51, 74, and 60. Factor in the gaudy TD total of one, and you have some pathetic stats. Also consider that the Titans are allowing zero TDs and about 90 ypg rushing, and you'll easily realize that Abdul-Jabbar and Kirby are not viable options for this week.
PASSING Minnesota Vikings vs San Diego -- It sure seems like the Chargers are getting picked on lately. Last week I even listed Jim Miller against San Diego as a good matchup. Miller passed for 357 yards and a TD. Not bad for a free agent fantasy QB. This week Jeff George and the Vikings will better that performance. Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee -- OK, I realize that it doesn't take a mental heavyweight to point out that Warner and George would be good QBs this week. Well how about Tim Couch? In his past four games, he's averaging almost 200 yards and almost two TDs per contest. Over that same time frame, the Titans are allowing 238 yards and almost two TDs per game. If you're searching for a decent QB this week, Couch would be a great find.
Bad matchups Arizona Cardinals at NY Giants -- I don't think the Cardinals could pass out at a propane convention. Check out the yardage totals from their last four games: 111, 199, 209, and 115. That's an average of 159 passing yards per game (which is actually less than what the Jets are lately averaging on the ground). Anyway, the Giants defense will clamp down hard on Dave Brown (which doesn't take much effort by the way). Dallas Cowboys vs Miami -- As you probably realize, Troy Aikman will be playing this week. It won't matter. The Cowboys don't get many passing yards, and the Dolphins don't allow many passing yards. Dallas will run Emmitt and toss little screens and slants. Lots of short stuff, keep the score close, and win the game late. Funny, that sounds like the Miami gameplan as well. What a Thursday treat this will be. Turkey and Hams vs Me -- They don't stand a chance. Have a good weekend.
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