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Good and Bad Matchups

by Clayton Gray

Week 14 Edition

 


Upcoming Matchups -- Week 14

Comments? Reach me here.


Well, due to overwhelming pressure, the old format has returned. Each week, you'll see a listing of the best and worst matchups both rushing and passing. If you can, exploit these matchups. Obviously, nothing is 100% in football, but each weekly matchup has been analyzed using statistics from each team's last four games. This is kind of a 'what have you done for me lately' approach. When 'average' statistics are given, they are from that team's last four games. Let's get to it.

RUSHING

Good matchups

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland -- The Browns are allowing 150 rushing yards and a pair of TDs per game. What else do you need to think about? Corey Dillon will have quite a game. Possible fantasy player of the week honors here.

St. Louis Rams at New Orleans -- The last time these two teams met, the Rams ran for four TDs. That certainly isn't likely to happen again, but I'm pretty sure St. Louis will score a few points this weekend. Faulk will get plenty of yards and has a good shot at finding the endzone.

Tennessee Titans vs Oakland -- This is a tough one. The Raiders have been pretty good at stopping the run this year. However, the Titans score almost all of their TDs on the ground (nine in the last four games). Tennessee lost horribly last week, and it's hard to imagine back-to-back weak efforts.

Bad matchups

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore -- Two things to consider. First of all, the Ravens have an excellent defense. Second, and possibly more important, the Steelers have been atrocious at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas -- I'm a big fan of the Duce, but this Cowboys defense has been absolutely stellar this season. The pass defense hasn't been too surprising, but the way they have been stopping the run has been almost shocking. This matchup could easily end up in a 6-3 final.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay -- You shouldn't need me to tell you that the Buccaneers have a good (slight understatement) run defense. If you have Greg Hill or Sedrick Irvin, you certainly don't need me to tell you that the Lions are not a ground team. Will Detroit see 30 total rushing yards this week?

PASSING

Good matchups

St. Louis Rams at New Orleans -- Anybody that benches Kurt Warner is either a complete idiot or the owner of the deepest QB roster in fantasy football history. It is a surprise if Warner doesn't throw for three TDs in a game. The Saints aren't exactly a pillar of defensive strength.

Seattle Seahawks vs San Diego -- The Chargers have allowed 10 passing TDs in their last four games. Let's look a little deeper into that statistic: the per game totals are 4, 1, 4, and 1. Is this the week for four? It would not be surprising if Kitna tallies that number.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco -- The 49ers can't stop anybody (Jeff Blake threw for FOUR scores against them last week). Chandler and the Falcons are showing a little life on offense. Look for them the spring up big-time this week.

Bad matchups

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas -- You don't normally see a team listed here twice, but the Eagles offense is just plain bad. Combine that with the high quality Dallas defense, and you come up with a long day for Philadelphia.

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville -- The Jaguars have allowed a mere two passing TDs in their last four games. Over that same time, the Bronco have thrown two TDs. Do you want to bank on that trend reversing AT Jacksonville?

New Orleans Saints vs St. Louis -- The Saints will certainly fall behind and will certainly need to pass. The problem is they are just as likely to throw a TD to a Rams defender. Besides, does anyone know which Billy Joe is starting this week? More importantly, does anyone know which Billy Joe will finish?