Who has the best team in the NFL?
Now I know we have the Unification Bowl to determine the NFL Champion; but, I wanted a way to adjust for the luck inherent in playing the right team at the right time. Since the NFL has the same scoring across leagues, I thought it was a unique opportunity to compare 60 teams.
Is it the team with the best record? There are a few undefeated teams. What about the highest scoring undefeated team? That doesn't seem quite right either, as the highest overall scoring team, is not necessarily the best team. But, overall scoring is obviously important. And what about the teams in the middle of the pack? We've all seen examples where the second lowest scoring team in the league wins while the second highest scoring team in the league loses. At first I thought of wins versus the league every week (ie. You versus the NFL). But, that didn't seem to tell the whole story. I figured scoring should be there somewhere. Opponents score per game is also a big factor in determining the relative strength of a team. What about losses?
Well, what I've done here is come up with an objective formula that takes some of the "luck" out (Timely Wins might be a better way to put it) and attempts to determine the best team in the NFL. Each week you play every team in the NFL (59 games), winning based on points scored that week.
This is the first criteria: Total Wins.
The second criteria is where you rank based solely on cumulative points scored.
The third criteria is your points against rank.
The fourth criteria is number of losses + 1 (To compensate for undefeated teams).
The formula is as follows: ((winning rank+scoring rank+opponents scoring rank)/3)*(L+1)). I call it the Williams Rating (Hey, it's not a new star or element; but, I'm naming it). If nothing else, it provides another way to look at the league.
A perfect Williams rating would be 1.00; for ranking first in scoring in the NFL, ranking first in wins versus the entire NFL, giving up the most average points per game, and by being undefeated.
A good example is the Spittin’ Camels. Are they the best team in the league? They have two losses, how could they be. Their Williams rating puts them as the best team in the league. They are the highest scoring team in the NFL and are ranked 1st in wins against the rest of the league; and they have a points against rank of 12 (Data as of week 8). This is how I figure them to be the best team in the NFL.
Another example is the Titan Traders, who only have 2 losses. But are they that good? Let’s take a closer look. They rank 48th in points and 49 in wins versus the league, and their points against rank is 55 (Only five teams have given up less points). Their Williams rating puts them as about the 35th best team in the NFL, even though there are only 13 teams with 2 or fewer losses (Week 8 data).
There could be some argument that bias could be introduced if the competition in an individual league is not normally distributed (ie. One teams stands head and shoulders above the rest). But, we couldn't possibly see that among the knowledgeable owners in the NFL, could we?